Fed call track record
Before each FOMC meeting our model estimates the odds of every decision. Here is every graded call, including the ones it got wrong.
Read this first. Only 1 of these 8 calls was recorded live. The others were rebuilt from saved predictions when scoring began, and their full odds were estimated from a top call and one alternative. The model has not yet called a rate move as most likely, so the record shows no proven edge. We publish it so that you can watch it build.
- 6 of 8
- Decisions called
- 0 of 2
- Rate moves called
- 0.297
- Brier score (lower is better)
- 0.425
- Always-predict-hold Brier
| Meeting | Our call | Actual | Odds given to actual | Result | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Hold (92%) | Hold | 92% | ✓ Hit | Live |
| 2026-09-16 | Hold (65%) | Hike 25bp | 25% | ✗ Miss | Rebuilt |
| 2026-07-29 | Hold (85%) | Hold | 85% | ✓ Hit | Rebuilt |
| 2026-06-17 | Hold (80%) | Hold | 80% | ✓ Hit | Rebuilt |
| 2026-04-29 | Hold (85%) | Hold | 85% | ✓ Hit | Rebuilt |
| 2026-03-18 | Hold (75%) | Hold | 75% | ✓ Hit | Rebuilt |
| 2026-01-28 | Hold (80%) | Hold | 80% | ✓ Hit | Rebuilt |
| 2025-12-10 | Hold (70%) | Cut 25bp | 25% | ✗ Miss | Rebuilt |
The Brier score measures probability accuracy across all five possible decisions. Calls are AI-generated and for information only, not investment advice. Updated 2026-10-30.