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What the headline leaves out of every U.S. economic release

StoneFlare breaks down CPI, jobs, GDP, and Fed releases into the signal that matters for markets and policy.

Latest Articles

Banking

Bank Credit Keeps Growing, But Momentum Slows: October 30, 2026 H.8 Release Shows C&I Lending Rebound Amid Funding Shifts

The Federal Reserve’s October 30, 2026 H.8 release, with data through October 21, paints a picture of a banking system still expanding credit, but with clear signs of decelerating momentum and evol...

Consumer

November 2026 Consumer Sentiment: A Rebound That’s More Surface Than Substance

The University of Michigan’s November 6, 2026 preliminary consumer sentiment report delivers a headline-friendly bounce: sentiment rose 6.3% month-over-month, climbing from 48.0 in Octo...

Employment

Payroll Revisions Rewrite the Late-Summer Labor Story: November 6, 2026 Jobs Report Unveils Hidden Strength and Lingering Weakness

The November 6, 2026 employment report didn’t just deliver October’s payroll gain of 165,000 jobs—it rewrote the recent past. August and September payrolls were revised sharply higher by a comb...

Employment

Initial Claims Drop to New Low, But Continuing Claims Tell a More Nuanced Story: November 5, 2026 Labor Data

The November 5, 2026 labor claims release delivered a headline-grabbing drop in seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims to 189,000—the lowest weekly reading so far this year. At first g...

Trade

September Trade Deficit Narrows by $0.7 Billion, but Real Goods Gap Widens Sharply: November 4, 2026 Report Unpacks the Contradiction

The U.S. trade deficit edged down by a slim $0.7 billion to $105.0 billion in September, according to the November 4, 2026 official release. At first glance, the headline suggests progress in n...

Employment

October ADP Jobs Report: +86,000 Gain Masks Missing Details and Mixed Signals

The November 4, 2026 ADP employment report for October showed private-sector jobs rising by +86,000, a modest slowdown from September’s +90,000. On the surface, the headline confirms on...

Employment

September JOLTS: Quiet Stability Masks a Shift Toward More Voluntary Job Moves

*Data released November 3, 2026*

Fed

Credit Tightening Creeps In: October 2026 SLOOS Reveals Fragile Lending Landscape

The Federal Reserve’s October 1, 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) paints a credit environment that’s far from broadly easing. While large and middle-market commercial and industrial ...

Data you won't get from a summary

Fed call track record

Every FOMC call we made, scored against what happened, misses included.

WARN layoff tracker

State layoff notices rolled into one national monthly count.

Revision tracker

How far first prints of jobs, GDP, and retail sales later move.

Bellwether hiring tracker

Daily open roles at the employers whose hiring turns first, by cohort.

Browse by indicator

Inflation

CPI, PPI, PCE price signals

29

Employment

Jobs, claims, and labor dynamics

86

Fed

Central bank's next move

76

GDP

Economic growth scorecard

17

Manufacturing

ISM, durables, and factory output

42

Consumer

Retail sales and sentiment

28

Housing

Starts, sales, and market pulse

35

Trade

Global trade flows and policy

20

Banking

Bank lending and credit health

15