StoneFlare

Cutting through the noise with data-driven analysis

Latest Articles

JUL 01, 2026Manufacturing

Expansion With asterisks: June PMI Slips to 53.3 as Prices Stay Hot at 73.0 and Employment Stalls at 49.7

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JUN 30, 2026Consumer

April Retail Says +0.5%—But the 90% Confidence Interval Includes Zero; Gasoline Did the Heavy Lifting

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JUN 29, 2026Consumer

Retail Sales “Up” 0.5%—But the 90% CI Includes Zero: Reading the May 14, 2026 Release

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JUN 29, 2026Fed

June 24 Fed Remarks Lean on 2025 Survey: “Nearly Half” of Small Firms Use AI, 71% Report Productivity Gains—But 2026 Credit Context Is Missing

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JUN 26, 2026Consumer

Retail’s “Up” With an Asterisk: April Sales +0.5% (±0.4), But Confidence Interval Includes Zero

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JUN 25, 2026Inflation

Nominal Sizzle, Real Fizzle: May PCE +0.4% While Spending +0.7% and Saving Slides to 3.0%

On June 25, 2026, the BEA’s latest release delivered an upbeat trio—personal income, disposable income, and spending all up **0.7%** in May—but left the inflation engine running. The PCE price inde...

JUN 25, 2026Employment

Claims Dip, Signals Rise: Initial Claims Fall to 215,000 While Continuing Claims Climb to 1.821 Million

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JUN 25, 2026Consumer

Retail’s “+0.5%” Comes With a Zero: The 2026-05-14 Census Release Oversells Significance

On 2026-05-14, the official retail and food services release led with an **April +0.5% month-over-month** rise—but the very same document warns that the **90% confidence interval includes zero**. T...