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What the headline leaves out of every U.S. economic release

StoneFlare breaks down CPI, jobs, GDP, and Fed releases into the signal that matters for markets and policy.

Latest Articles

Employment

Initial Claims Drop to New Low, But Continuing Claims Tell a More Nuanced Story: November 5, 2026 Labor Data

The November 5, 2026 labor claims release delivered a headline-grabbing drop in seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims to 189,000—the lowest weekly reading so far this year. At first g...

Trade

September Trade Deficit Narrows by $0.7 Billion, but Real Goods Gap Widens Sharply: November 4, 2026 Report Unpacks the Contradiction

The U.S. trade deficit edged down by a slim $0.7 billion to $105.0 billion in September, according to the November 4, 2026 official release. At first glance, the headline suggests progress in n...

Employment

October ADP Jobs Report: +86,000 Gain Masks Missing Details and Mixed Signals

The November 4, 2026 ADP employment report for October showed private-sector jobs rising by +86,000, a modest slowdown from September’s +90,000. On the surface, the headline confirms on...

Employment

September JOLTS: Quiet Stability Masks a Shift Toward More Voluntary Job Moves

*Data released November 3, 2026*

Fed

Credit Tightening Creeps In: October 2026 SLOOS Reveals Fragile Lending Landscape

The Federal Reserve’s October 1, 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) paints a credit environment that’s far from broadly easing. While large and middle-market commercial and industrial ...

Manufacturing

Manufacturing Expansion Masks Growing Strain: October 1, 2026 ISM PMI Reveals a Tale of Two Realities

The October 1, 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI release paints a picture of ongoing expansion with a headline reading of 54.5, signaling continued growth in U.S. manufacturing for the ninth consecuti...

Housing

FHFA Home Price Index: August Gains Mask a Patchwork Market, July Revised Down

The October 27, 2026 FHFA House Price Index release paints a cautiously optimistic picture: national home prices rose 0.3% in August and are up 2.4% year-over-year. But dig beneath the ...

BOJ

BOJ’s October 30, 2026 Outlook: Inflation Risks Skewed Up, But “Around 2%” Is a Stretch

The Bank of Japan’s October 30, 2026 Outlook Report dropped quietly, but its numbers tell a story that’s anything but benign. While the BOJ insists underlying inflation is “generally consistent” wi...

Data you won't get from a summary

Fed call track record

Every FOMC call we made, scored against what happened, misses included.

WARN layoff tracker

State layoff notices rolled into one national monthly count.

Revision tracker

How far first prints of jobs, GDP, and retail sales later move.

Bellwether hiring tracker

Daily open roles at the employers whose hiring turns first, by cohort.

Browse by indicator

Inflation

CPI, PPI, PCE price signals

29

Employment

Jobs, claims, and labor dynamics

85

Fed

Central bank's next move

76

GDP

Economic growth scorecard

17

Manufacturing

ISM, durables, and factory output

42

Consumer

Retail sales and sentiment

27

Housing

Starts, sales, and market pulse

35

Trade

Global trade flows and policy

20

Banking

Bank lending and credit health

14