Fed

Economic data and analysis related to Fed

SLOOS

“Basically Unchanged” Isn’t: The April 1, 2026 Release Reveals a Split Credit Market Hiding in Plain Sight

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Fed Speeches

Pro‑Innovation, Missing Guardrails: May 01, 2026 Release Eases Model Rules While Vowing to Prevent Bank Failures

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Fed

Easing Bias Under “Elevated” Inflation: Apr 29, 2026 Fed Statement Clashes with Beige Book Reality

On April 29, 2026, the Committee said the economy is expanding at a “solid pace,” kept rates at **3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent**, and slipped in an easing bias—while also declaring inflation “elevated.” ...

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Fed Speeches

System First, Bank Second: April 21 Fed Remarks Signal Centralization—With Zero Macro Claims

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Fed Speeches

April 17 Reality Check: PCE Up 0.4%/0.5%, Unemployment 4.3–4.4%—Not the Slump You Heard

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Fed Speeches

April 7: Tariffs Named the Villain; CPI +0.3% and PPI +0.7% Offer No Smoking Gun

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Fed Speeches

Tight Credit, Loose Narrative: March 31 Release Hangs on a 9% Q3 2025 Tightening While Nudging for Lower Rates

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Fed Speeches

Rhetoric Outruns Reality: Barr Warns as PPI Hits 0.7% and CPI Ticks to 0.3%

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Fed Speeches

Powell’s March 21 Silence Lands as PPI Jumps 0.7% and Payrolls Slip 92,000

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Fed

“Solid” vs. “Slight”: March 18, 2026 Statement Overplays Growth, Downplays Costs

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Fed Speeches

Capital Light, Math Missing: March 12 Release Promises “Small” G-SIB Relief Without the Numbers

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Fed Speeches

Liquidity Hoarding or Lending Growth? The Fed’s March 3 Release Trips Over Its Own Story

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Beige Book

Beige Book Optimism Meets a Five-District Reality Check: Flat or Falling Activity as Costs Stick (Feb 1, 2026)

In the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book press release dated 2026-02-01, the National Summary leaned into “slight to moderate” growth and “optimistic” expectations. The district detail tells a chillier ...

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Fed Speeches

“Sound and Resilient”—So Why the Retrofit? Fed’s Feb 26 Testimony Pitches Confidence While Rewriting the Playbook

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Fed Speeches

CPI Slows to 2.4% While “Stall” Is the Headline: February 06 Remarks vs the Numbers

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sloos

When “Tighter” Means Cheaper: Jan 1, 2026 Release Shows Lower Credit-Line Costs for Big Firms Amid “Unchanged” Standards

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fed

“Solid” on Paper, “Slight” on the Ground: Jan 28 FOMC Tone Collides with Beige Book Reality

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fed

“Remained Strong” Meets Reality: Jan 16 Fed Message Leaned on Q3’s 4.3% While Current Growth Looks Only Slight-to-Modest

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fed

2.7% CPI, 1.75pp Cuts, and a “Neutral” Fed: January 16 Release Meets Beige Book Reality

In the January 16, 2026 press release, the policy narrative promised tariffs were a “one-time” price bump and disinflation would glide toward target. The Beige Book published the same week told a d...

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fed

Six Districts in Contraction vs “Strong” Economy: The Fed’s 2026-01-16 Narrative Meets the Beige Book

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fed_speeches

“Strong” on Paper: Jan 16 Release Cites 4.3% Q3 GDP While Jobs Add Just 50–64k and CPI Stalls at 2.7%

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fed

“Strong” vs “Slight”: The 2026-01-16 Fed Message Collides with a Modest Beige Book

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fed

Neutral, Or Just Neutralized? Fed’s 1.75-Point Pivot Meets Tariff Reality in the January 16 Release

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fed

Strong vs. Slight: Jan 16 Fed Framing Collides with Beige Book Reality

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fed

Jan 16 Fed Narrative vs Beige Book Reality: “Solid” Growth Meets “Slight to Modest,” CPI at 2.7%, Unemployment at 4.4%

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fed

Jan 16 Fed Narrative vs Beige Book: 4.3% Q3 Strength Meets “Slight-to-Modest” Reality

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fed

Strong Headlines, Modest Reality: 2026-01-16 Release Oversells Growth as Beige Book Flags Soft Spots

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fed_speeches

Cautious Words, Stubborn Numbers: Fed’s Jan 16 Optimism Meets Flat 2.7% CPI and +50k Jobs

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fed

“Near 2%—If You Ignore Tariffs”: Jan 16 Release Collides with Rising Pass‑Through

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beige_book

Tariffs, Temps, and 5–10% Price Hikes: The 2026-01-01 Release Oversells Moderation

The official press release dated **2026-01-01** leans into “moderation” on prices and “mostly unchanged” employment. The districts, however, describe intensifying pass-through from tariffs and util...

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fed_speeches

Independence Without Evidence: The Fed’s Jan 11 Release Defends Process, Cites No Data

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fed

Tariffs Are “Noise”? The 2025-12-15 Release Doubles Down on Dovish Logic Built on “Phantom” Fees

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fed

Rate Cuts in a Rising-Price World: Dec 10 FOMC trims 25 bps and flags T‑bill buys to “maintain ample reserves”

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data-driven

Beige Book’s “Little Changed” Isn’t: Tariff/Insurance Shocks and Softening Demand Define the 2025-11-01 Release

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fed_speeches

The Fed's New AI Playbook: Jefferson Signals a Dovish Pivot While Quietly Flagging a 30% Systemic Risk

On **November 21, 2025**, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson stepped up to the podium at the Cleveland Fed's Financial Stability Conference and quietly unveiled a significant new chapte...

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data-driven

The Fed's April Fools' Joke: Beige Book Reveals an Economy Grinding to a Halt

The Federal Reserve’s April 1, 2025, Beige Book summary wants you to believe the U.S. economy is stable, describing activity as “little changed.” But peel back that one placid layer, and you’ll fin...

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fed_speeches

PRESS RELEASE SUMMARY

Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivered remarks on November 21, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference. The speech, titled "AI, the Economy, and Financial St...

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fed_speeches

The Fed's New AI Get-Out-of-Jail-Free Card: Jefferson Signals a Major Narrative Shift

On November 21, 2025, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivered a speech that was less about near-term monetary policy and more about building a new, all-purpose narrative for the fu...

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data-driven

The Engine Just Seized: C&I Lending Plummets to 1.6%, Flashing a Major Red Flag

The headline numbers from the Federal Reserve's H.8 release on **November 21, 2025**, tell a story of modest health, with total bank loans and leases rebounding to a **5.8%** annual growth rate. Bu...

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data-driven

11/11 Fed Speech Lauds Productivity, Skips the 25 bp Cut: Inflation “Moved Up,” Payrolls +22k, PCE +0.6%

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fed_cross_reference

Fed's Rate Cut Pivot: Rhetoric Racing Ahead of Reality

Over the past six months, Federal Reserve officials have aggressively signaled rate cuts even as core inflation remains stubbornly above target and economic growth stays robust. Our analysis of 20 ...

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fed

Flying Blind or Just Closing One Eye? Deconstructing the Fed's November 3rd Narrative Pivot

In a masterclass of central bank communication delivered on **November 3, 2025**, Governor Cook managed a stunning feat: justifying a major policy pivot by claiming data dependency… while admitting...

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Economic Data

Cuts on the Lips, Core at 2.9%: September 26 Data Clash with the Fed’s Easing Drumbeat

On September 26, 2025, the BEA dropped a one-two release that should have quieted the rate-cut chorus: **core PCE held at 2.9% y/y** with **+0.2% m/m**, while Q2 real GDP clocked a **3.8%** annuali...

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fed

Easing Into Headwinds: Oct 29 Fed Cuts 25 bp While Beige Book Calls Growth “Flat”

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