Existing-Home Sales Hit 16-Year Low as Affordability Weakens

The November 12, 2026 National Association of Realtors release delivered a sharp split-screen: October existing-home sales fell to an annualized 3.75 million, the lowest pace since August 2010, while the national median price still rose 0.4% from a year earlier. Buyers are retreating; prices, for now, have not followed them down.

Here’s what the data reveals:

• Sales dropped 5.5% from September and 8.8% from October 2025.

• The median price reached $416,700, extending the run of year-over-year gains to 40 consecutive months.

• Inventory rose to 1.59 million homes, lifting supply to 5.1 months, while the first-time buyer share slipped to 29%.

• The West recorded the steepest regional sales decline, down 14.5% year over year.

• October’s average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.33%, up from 6.25% a year earlier.

Sales Retreat, but the Price Record Holds

The sales slowdown is broad enough to show up in both major home categories. Single-family sales fell 5.8% from September and 8.6% from a year earlier. Condominium and co-op sales dropped 2.9% month over month and 10.5% annually.

Yet their median prices remained slightly above year-earlier levels:

The gap between falling transactions and still-rising prices is not a paradox. A median is shaped by the mix of homes sold, and fewer completed transactions do not automatically force prices lower. October’s figures show a market where sales activity has weakened substantially, but the national resale median has not yet turned negative year over year.

The longer comparison shows how quickly the sales story changed. June and July releases reported year-over-year sales gains of 2.8% and 0.7%, respectively. October was down 8.8%. The supplied releases do not establish exactly when the deterioration accelerated between July and October.

There is also a reporting wrinkle in the historical figures: the July release put June sales at 4.09 million, while the August release reported July sales of 4.06 million alongside a 1.7% monthly decline. Those rounded levels do not reconcile with that percentage. A revision or difference in reporting could explain it, but the cited material does not settle the matter.

More Supply, Less Room for First-Time Buyers

Inventory climbed to 1.59 million units in October, up 1.3% from September and 4.6% from a year earlier. With sales slowing, months’ supply rose to 5.1, compared with 4.7 in September and 4.4 a year earlier. That combination is consistent with a less constrained market nationally, though it does not prove that every region or price range has shifted in the same way.

The change in who is participating is just as telling. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of October purchases, down from 31% in September and 32% a year earlier. Meanwhile, investors and second-home buyers made up 20%, unchanged from September and above October 2025’s 16%. Cash sales were 29%, matching the year-earlier share.

Those categories should not be conflated: the release does not say that all cash buyers were investors. But the broad pattern is clear. First-time buyers have lost share as financing costs have risen and affordability has weakened.

The Housing Affordability Index fell to 100.7 in October from 107.3 a year earlier. In February, NAR had highlighted improving affordability for a seventh consecutive month; the November release now shows the index below its year-earlier level. These comparisons describe different periods, so they do not pinpoint when the turn occurred. They do show that the earlier improvement had not carried through to October.

One National Market, Four Different Stories

The national decline masks sizable regional differences. The West led the downturn, with sales down 9.7% from September and 14.5% from a year earlier. The Northeast was unchanged month over month, although its sales remained 4.1% below the prior year.

The South was the only region with a year-over-year price decline, at 0.4%. The West’s median price was flat, while the Northeast posted the largest increase, 3.2%. Affordability weakened in all four regions, with the largest year-over-year drop in the Northeast, at 8.7%. One national median, then, cannot capture the full range of local conditions.

Mortgage Costs Add Pressure, but the Lock-In Effect Is Unmeasured

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.33% in October from 6.86% in September and 6.25% a year earlier. That rise is consistent with weaker affordability and reduced sales activity. It does not, on its own, establish how much of the sales decline came from financing costs.

NAR points to a possible lock-in effect: homeowners with older, lower-rate mortgages may be reluctant to move and take on a more expensive loan. That is plausible, but the supplied releases do not measure existing mortgage rates, seller intentions, or the size of the effect. Likewise, the possibility of pent-up demand if rates decline is conditional—not a measured forecast.

The release also reports distressed sales at 2%, which supports NAR’s description of many homeowners as being in a comfortable position. That does not mean buyers are unaffected: low distressed-sale activity can coexist with falling sales and a shrinking first-time buyer share.

What to Watch in the Next Release

The next report will help determine whether October was a sharp monthly setback or part of a sustained slide. The key comparisons are sales against October’s 3.75 million annualized pace, inventory against 1.59 million, and months’ supply against 5.1. A recovery in sales alongside stable or easing supply would complicate the slowdown story; another decline in sales with supply continuing to rise would reinforce it.

Prices and participation deserve equal attention. A national median below its year-earlier level would mark a break in the 40-month streak, though regional results and the mix of homes sold would still matter. A first-time buyer share below 29% would extend October’s participation decline. Mortgage rates will also remain relevant, but the releases provided here do not include evidence to quantify how rate changes translate into sales.

The data show a housing market with its weakest sales pace since 2010, worsening affordability, and more homes available relative to sales—yet national prices still slightly above year-earlier levels. The next release will show whether October’s contraction deepens, or whether the market’s growing supply and lower activity begin to alter the price record.