StoneFlare

Cutting through the noise with data-driven analysis

Latest Articles

Employment

Claims Dive to 189,000, But the Labor Story Doesn’t Budge: What the 2026-04-30 Release Really Says

On April 30, 2026, the Department of Labor’s weekly claims release touted a headline-grabbing drop in seasonally adjusted initial claims to **189,000 (-26,000)**. It sounds like a clean win for lab...

GDP

Q1’s 2.0% GDP Masks a 4.5% Consumer Price Surge

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Inflation

Nominal Sizzle, Real Fizzle: March PCE +0.9% m/m, Real DPI -0.1%

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Fed

Easing Bias Under “Elevated” Inflation: Apr 29, 2026 Fed Statement Clashes with Beige Book Reality

On April 29, 2026, the Committee said the economy is expanding at a “solid pace,” kept rates at **3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent**, and slipped in an easing bias—while also declaring inflation “elevated.” ...

Housing

Starts “Up,” Pipeline Down: March Housing Leans on Backlog as Permits Fall 10.8%

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Manufacturing

Defense Props the Headline: March Durable Orders +0.8% Masks a -0.3% Private-Sector Drop

The official release on 2026-04-29 cheered a **0.8%** rise in March durable goods orders. The part you could miss in the applause: strip out defense, and orders **fell 0.3%**. That isn’t a rounding...

Housing

April 22 Credit Score Shake-Up: VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T Announced—With 0 Cost Evidence

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Fed

System First, Bank Second: April 21 Fed Remarks Signal Centralization—With Zero Macro Claims

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