StoneFlare

Cutting through the noise with data-driven analysis

Latest Articles

Employment

ADP’s +98,000 June (Release: July 30, 2026): The Headline That Hid the Signal

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Manufacturing

The Quarter Sizzled, June Fizzled: July 17, 2026 IP Release Hides Flat Manufacturing and Subpar Utilization

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Employment

“Unchanged” With Moving Targets: May JOLTS Holds at 7.6M Openings as April Is Quietly Rewritten

On June 30, 2026, the official JOLTS press release presented May as a study in stability—“unchanged” job openings, “unchanged” hires, “changed little” separations. The twist: the same release revis...

Inflation

June PPI’s -0.3% Headline Hides 5.1% Core and a 13.0% Fuel-Retail Margin Pop

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Inflation

June CPI’s -0.4% “Record Drop” Rides Gasoline’s -9.7% Plunge; Core Flat and Shelter Still +3.3% YoY

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Fed

Solid vs. Slight: FOMC Holds at 3.5%–3.75% With 3 Dissents as Beige Book Says Prices “Same or Slower” in All Districts

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Manufacturing

Backlogs Burn While Headlines Smile: June Durable Orders +0.3% as Defense +41% YTD Masks Private Softness

The official release dated July 27, 2026 says durable goods orders rose a modest **0.3% m/m** in June. That’s technically true—and strategically incomplete. Strip out transportation and orders rose...

Fed

July 16 Fed Optimism Meets Hard Data: PPI +0.5%/+0.7%, PCE 3.7% YoY, June Payrolls +57k

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