StoneFlare

Cutting through the noise with data-driven analysis

Latest Articles

JUN 26, 2026Consumer

Retail’s “Up” With an Asterisk: April Sales +0.5% (±0.4), But Confidence Interval Includes Zero

## PRESS RELEASE SUMMARY

JUN 25, 2026Inflation

Nominal Sizzle, Real Fizzle: May PCE +0.4% While Spending +0.7% and Saving Slides to 3.0%

On June 25, 2026, the BEA’s latest release delivered an upbeat trio—personal income, disposable income, and spending all up **0.7%** in May—but left the inflation engine running. The PCE price inde...

JUN 25, 2026Employment

Claims Dip, Signals Rise: Initial Claims Fall to 215,000 While Continuing Claims Climb to 1.821 Million

## PRESS RELEASE SUMMARY

JUN 25, 2026Consumer

Retail’s “+0.5%” Comes With a Zero: The 2026-05-14 Census Release Oversells Significance

On 2026-05-14, the official retail and food services release led with an **April +0.5% month-over-month** rise—but the very same document warns that the **90% confidence interval includes zero**. T...

JUN 25, 2026GDP

Headline 2.1% GDP, Softer Core at 1.7%: The 2026-06-25 Trade Mirage

On June 25, 2026, the official third estimate put real GDP at **2.1%**, an upgrade from **1.6%**. The catch? The same release quietly marked down the economy’s core engine—real final sales to priva...

JUN 25, 2026Manufacturing

Durables Headline Sinks 4.5%, Core Capex Climbs 1.6%: The Aircraft Mirage in May’s Orders

## PRESS RELEASE SUMMARY

JUN 24, 2026Consumer

Retail Sales “Up” 0.5%—But the May 14, 2026 Release Says the Gain May Be Zero

On May 14, 2026, the Census Bureau headlined a **+0.5%** April rise in U.S. retail and food services sales to **$757.1 billion**. Then, buried in the same release: the **90% confidence interval inc...

JUN 23, 2026Consumer