Tariffs Are “Noise”? The 2025-12-15 Release Doubles Down on Dovish Logic Built on “Phantom” Fees

PRESS RELEASE SUMMARY

The official press release dated 2025-12-15 lands with a bold claim: measured inflation is overstated—by “about 40 bps” on core PCE—because portfolio management fees are mismeasured, while tariffs are just inflation “noise.” It’s a clean dovish pitch—if you ignore the Fed’s own regional intelligence. The November Beige Book cites widespread tariff-driven cost pressures and margin compression across multiple Districts (national summary; Cleveland; Kansas City; Dallas), and notes “prices rose moderately.” The speech’s confidence on faster shelter disinflation also outruns the mixed housing data on the ground. One line does hold: the labor market is softening, and both the speech and Beige Book agree.

Here’s what the data reveals:
- Portfolio fees were said to add ~30 bps to core PCE; replacing them with industry fee declines would lower core PCE by ~40 bps—but the Fed’s target is the PCE it actually measures.
- Tariff effects were minimized, yet the Beige Book reports tariff-induced input cost increases, margin compression, and heightened uncertainty across Districts.
- Shelter disinflation was called “faster” ahead, grounded in catch-up dynamics and a “negative population shock,” but Beige Book housing signals were mixed by region.
- Labor is the aligned piece: “employment declined slightly,” wage growth modest to moderate, and employers report easier hiring.
- The FOMC already cut 25 bps on 2025-10-29 citing rising downside employment risks; the latest speech argues policy is still “too high,” a sharper dovish turn than the Committee’s consensus.

Numbers Behind the Narrative

The heart of the speech is a measurement critique: portfolio advisory fees supposedly inflated core PCE by around 30 bps, and a “corrected” approach would have produced a reading roughly 40 bps lower. The conclusion: rates are “too high” because inflation is partly a statistical mirage.

Two problems:
- The Fed’s framework targets PCE, not an adjusted version that removes inconvenient nonmarket components. Declaring parts of official PCE “phantom” while judging policy against a counterfactual is internally inconsistent with the stated framework.
- The Beige Book points to broad-based cost pressures—insurance, utilities, technology, health care—suggesting services inflation isn’t just a fee-measurement artifact.

In short, the dovish case rests less on a broad deceleration in prices and more on re-weighting one component to reframe the headline.

Tariffs: The On‑the‑Ground Rebuttal

The speech leans hard into long-run incidence—tariffs ultimately borne by foreign exporters—then de-emphasizes near-term price impact. The Beige Book response: reality bites now.
- Multiple Districts (Cleveland, Kansas City, Dallas) report tariff-induced input cost increases, margin compression, and persistent uncertainty suppressing pricing power and capex clarity.
- Businesses in the national summary note “prices rose moderately,” with tariffs listed among the drivers. That’s pass-through, not theory.

Even if U.S. import demand is elastic in the long run, suppliers adjust prices with lags and frictions. Near-term pass-through can still be material—and it’s exactly what District contacts describe. Timing differences between CPI and PCE goods don’t negate what firms are paying today.

Shelter Disinflation: Conviction Outrunning Evidence

The speech flags three reasons shelter inflation will fall “faster”: rent catch-up effects are largely done, a “negative population shock,” and mean reversion in the shelter share of consumption. The Beige Book doesn’t provide the all-clear:
- Housing conditions are mixed: residential construction down in some Districts, Dallas weak, “renewed strength” in Boston.
- New-tenant rent measures have cooled, but the translation into PCE shelter is slow and uneven. The confidence in a sharp near-term step-down isn’t corroborated by regional anecdotes.

If the shelter impulse eases, it likely drifts lower—not cliff-dives. That matters for timing rate cuts and the durability of disinflation.

Goods Inflation: Timing vs. Causality

The speech uses CPI–PCE timing differences to dismiss tariffs as a meaningful goods inflation driver. But the Beige Book’s contemporaneous reports of higher input costs indicate pass-through is already in motion. Long-run incidence is a poor guide to near-term margins and pricing:
- Firms report raising prices selectively while absorbing part of the shock—classic margin compression.
- Expect uneven pass-through by sector: capital goods, machinery, and intermediate inputs look vulnerable; consumer durables pass-through is more constrained in a softening demand backdrop.

Downplaying the tariff channel today risks misreading the next few PCE prints on goods disinflation.

Labor Market: The Piece That Fits

Here the speech and Beige Book agree:
- “Employment declined slightly.”
- Employers are finding it easier to hire.
- Wage growth is modest to moderate.

That alignment supports a gradual policy easing path already signaled by the 25 bp October cut. But it doesn’t validate a wholesale dismissal of measured PCE components.

The 2025 Narrative Drift in One Chart

The center of gravity has shifted from tariff concern in mid‑2025 to a late‑year emphasis on labor cooling and measurement quirks. The 2025-12-15 release is the strongest push yet against tariffs as an inflation driver, paired with an assertive case that PCE is overstated.

What This Means for Markets

• Rates and Curve:

• Inflation Markets:

• Equities:

• Credit:

• FX and Commodities:

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

• PCE Services ex‑Housing: If insurance, utilities, tech, and health care continue to show moderate price gains, the “phantom fees” thesis weakens.

• PCE Goods Trajectory: Any re‑acceleration from tariff pass-through would challenge the “tariffs are noise” narrative.

• Shelter in PCE vs. Market Rents: Track the pace of deceleration—drift lower vs. step-down. A slower glide keeps real policy tight even after cuts.

• FOMC Communications: Does the Committee embrace the measurement critique or keep policy tied to the official PCE prints?

The latest release stakes a lot on measurement and minimizes tariffs just as District contacts flag the opposite. For investors, the edge is in respecting both stories: a softening labor market that justifies easing and a real-economy cost pulse that keeps inflation sticky around the edges. Position for cuts, protect against stickiness, and don’t confuse long‑run incidence with next quarter’s margins.