Retail “Reacceleration” With Training Wheels: August’s +0.6% Gain Comes With a Confidence Interval That Includes Zero

On 2025-09-16, the official retail sales press release led with a tidy headline: August 2025 up 0.6% month over month. Then, buried in the text, it undercut itself: “The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.” Add in conflicting date stamps like “FOR RELEASE… SEPTEMBER 16, 2015” and “September 16, 5,” and you’ve got a report that sells momentum—and then quietly questions it.

- The headline +0.6% m/m for August sits on a ±0.4% error band with a 90% confidence interval that can include zero. That’s not firm growth.
- The narrative spotlights nonstore retailers (+10.1% y/y) and food services (+6.5% y/y), while the total is +5.0% y/y and retail trade +4.8% y/y—implying softness elsewhere.
- July was revised up to +0.6% m/m (from +0.5%) with a tighter ±0.2% band, creating back-to-back +0.6% months—on paper.
- All figures are nominal. The release emphasizes “not for price changes” yet frames the results as growth without real (inflation-adjusted) context.
- Editorial inconsistencies (misdated stamps) and missing detail (no control-group data) cloud the GDP read-through.

Data Check: What’s In, What’s Missing

The 0.6% Mirage
Calling +0.6% m/m “growth” while noting the 90% confidence interval includes zero is a contradiction. Statistically, the August change may be indistinguishable from flat. It’s fine to headline the point estimate; it’s not fine to pretend the uncertainty doesn’t matter—especially when July’s revision conveniently sets up a “two-month streak.”

Nominal Gains, Real Questions
The release repeats “not for price changes,” yet frames the narrative as acceleration. Without deflators, we can’t distinguish volume from price. If goods inflation nudged higher or services menus moved up, part of that +0.6% is price. In other words, the “reacceleration” might be the thermometer, not the patient.

Selective Spotlighting
Two fast lanes—nonstore (+10.1% y/y) and food services (+6.5% y/y)—grab the microphone. The aggregate, however, is +5.0% y/y for total and +4.8% y/y for retail trade. Math demands that what’s not featured is growing slower than the headline. Without detail on auto dealers, gasoline stations, or general merchandise, investors are left inferring the drag rather than seeing it.

Revision Theater
The June–July change was nudged from +0.5% (±0.4%) to +0.6% (±0.2%)—a small step that tightens the band and cleans up the storyline: back-to-back +0.6% months in July and August. It’s a nicer narrative, but the August confidence caveat keeps it from being a solid inflection.

Missing GDP-Relevant Lenses
No control-group series (retail ex autos, gas, building materials, and restaurants) means we can’t parse the direct PCE goods signal. That omission matters because the GDP handoff often hinges on control-group momentum. The absence of auto and gasoline breakdowns also obscures two of the largest swing factors in monthly retail.

Editorial Static
Conflicting stamps like “FOR RELEASE… SEPTEMBER 16, 2015” aren’t merely cosmetic. They chip at confidence in the document’s curation, especially when the narrative already leans on selective emphasis.

• Consumer discretionary: The “steady consumer” thesis looks less robust when +0.6% may be statistically indistinguishable from zero and category breadth is unclear. Expect investors to favor quality retail with proven pricing power and traffic resilience over beta.

• E-commerce and dining: Nonstore (+10.1% y/y) and food services (+6.5% y/y) still screen as relative winners. Momentum names here can hold a premium—until real income or price sensitivity bites.

• Autos and fuel: With category details missing, risk tilts to disappointment if auto volumes soften or gasoline drags. Suppliers, dealers, and parts retailers face headline volatility when the full breakdown arrives.

• Macro tracks: Nominal framing without deflators muddies the read-through to real consumption and Q3 GDP. The risk is markets over-credit a nominal lift that may be mostly price.

• Rates and the Fed: If the consumer narrative is mainly nominal, the “resilient demand” case weakens. That supports a cautious stance on aggressive tightening assumptions and keeps duration-sensitive assets twitchy around each inflation print.

Looking Ahead

• Real vs nominal: Watch CPI/PCE deflators to translate this nominal +0.6% into real terms. If deflators run hot, real retail could be flat-to-negative.

• Control-group reveal: The next detailed release and GDP updates will need a control-group read. That’s the cleanest signal for PCE goods and Q3 tracking.

• Breadth check: Look for disclosure on autos, gasoline, and general merchandise to test whether nonstore/food services are masking weakness elsewhere.

• Revision risk: Another round of small upward revisions could keep the “steady consumer” narrative alive—until confidence intervals and deflators cut in.

• Seasonality: As we approach holiday comparables, promotional intensity becomes the tell. Rising promos would signal volume fragility under the nominal surface.

Conclusion
The 2025-09-16 release markets a +0.6% month—but the fine print says “maybe zero,” the figures are nominal, and the spotlight falls on the two brightest categories while the rest stays in shadow. That’s not a reacceleration; it’s a carefully lit stage.