PMI’s Blind Spot: Jan 29 Release Boosts Services (Jan Factors 0.939–0.987) and Suppresses Spring Orders—Without Supplier Deliveries

On 2026-01-29, the official PMI methodology update quietly introduced a transparency problem at precisely the moment it demanded trust. The release mandates seasonal adjustment for Supplier Deliveries in both Manufacturing and Services PMIs, but the 2026 seasonal factor tables omit Supplier Deliveries entirely. At the same time, it announces X-13-ARIMA revisions to Manufacturing and Services from January 2023 through December 2025—without publishing the revised history or even directional guidance. Add a rounding caveat (“computed values may differ from published values”) and the promise to recompute 2026 factors in early 2027, and the headline barometer investors rely on becomes harder to replicate, harder to audit, and easier to misread.

Here’s what the data reveals:

• Supplier Deliveries seasonal factors are missing, even though the methodology requires them to compute the headline PMI—an essential input removed from public view.

• Revisions to 2023–2025 are flagged but unquantified; the release provides no before/after, leaving users blind to how past contraction signals may change.

• Early-2026 optics are mechanically tilted: Services January factors are all below 1.000—Business Activity 0.939, New Orders 0.961, Employment 0.970, Prices 0.987—lifting adjusted readings versus raw data.

• Manufacturing seasonal factors front-load suppression (New Orders >1.000 in Feb–Apr) and back-load lifts (Aug–Dec <1.000), shaping narratives without an explicit warning.

• Published values may differ from computed results due to rounding—weakening reproducibility exactly when the methodology is being altered.

Numbers Behind the Narrative: An Asymmetric Seasonal Tilt

Seasonal factors aren’t window dressing; they set the baseline for headlines. This release tilts the field.

Early-Year Boost vs. Spring Damping

• Services gets a January tailwind across every major component: Business Activity 0.939, New Orders 0.961, Employment 0.970, Prices 0.987. All else equal, that inflates adjusted prints right out of the gate.

• Manufacturing’s New Orders carry a different bias: 1.053 in February, 1.071 in March, 1.075 in April—factors that suppress adjusted readings just as any rebound might form. Late-year factors flip below 1.000 (August 0.963, November 0.961, December 0.948), lifting year-end optics.

Select 2026 Seasonal Factors at a Glance

Note: “—” indicates not specified in the release summary above.

The implication is straightforward: Services headlines may look stronger in early 2026, while Manufacturing headlines may look softer in spring and stronger toward year-end—before any underlying reality changes.

Supplier Deliveries: The Missing Piece

Supplier Deliveries is not a rounding error; it’s a core PMI component that inverts the usual logic (higher index = slower deliveries). It anchors interpretations of supply chain tightness, pricing power, and lead time stress. The 2026 methodology requires seasonal adjustment for Supplier Deliveries in both Manufacturing and Services, yet the factor tables exclude it entirely. Without those factors, users cannot fully replicate the headline PMIs or validate the composite math.

• Missing factor, missing audit trail: Analysts can’t test how much Supplier Deliveries contributes to headline swings, particularly if a shift from “slower” to “faster” proportionately drags PMIs below 50.

• Bias risk through omission: If the absent factors are non-trivial—and in supply-constrained or easing episodes they often aren’t—the headline PMI could over- or understate momentum without a way to verify.

Revision Fog and Reproducibility Risk

The release says Manufacturing and Services PMIs are revised back to January 2023 using X-13-ARIMA methods. But no revised history is published. No backtest tables. Not even directional color (up or down). At the same moment, the document calls the PMI “the most reliable near-term economic barometer,” then notes that “differences in rounding practices may result in computed values that differ from published values.”

• Reliability vs. opacity: A barometer is only useful if it’s calibrated. Unquantified revisions plus rounding disclaimers dampen reproducibility when investors need it most.

• Moving target: The release adds that 2026 seasonal factors will be recomputed in early 2027. Translation: early-2026 prints are provisional. Headlines over the next few months can be revised after-the-fact, altering narratives after decisions have been made.

Narrative Drift vs. Late-2025 Reality

The latest seasonals collide with the late-2025 tape. Manufacturing was already contracting:

• September 2025 headline PMI: 49.1% (release 2025-10-01). New Orders contracting, Production growing, Employment contracting, Supplier Deliveries slowing, Raw Materials Inventories contracting, Customers’ Inventories too low, Prices increasing, Exports and Imports contracting.

• November 2025 headline PMI: 48.2% (release 2025-12-01). New Orders contracting, Production expanding, Employment contracting, Supplier Deliveries faster, Raw Materials Inventories contracting, Customers’ Inventories too low, Prices increasing, Exports and Imports contracting.

The signal consistency was the story: New Orders contracting alongside expanding Production and contracting Employment suggests output was propped up despite weak demand—classic inventory stretch. Prices rising into contraction is the awkward mix that pressures margins and hints at demand softness. Exports and imports contracting reinforced the breadth of weakness.

Now layer on 2026 seasonals:

• Early-2026 optics risk: Services January factors below 1.000 across major components will mechanically buoy adjusted readings in early February, potentially overshadowing ongoing Manufacturing softness.

• Spring suppression: Manufacturing New Orders factors above 1.000 in Feb–Apr will mute any stabilization narrative even if the underlying data improves.

• Back-loaded lift: Late-year factors (<1.000) plus Production’s December 0.936 could exaggerate a “resilient year-end” story, even if fundamentals don’t justify it.

All of this would be tolerable if the revisions to 2023–2025 were quantified and reproducible. They aren’t. Narrative drift is almost guaranteed.

What This Means for Markets

• Equities

• Rates

• Credit

• Commodities and Logistics

• Positioning and Process

What to Watch Next

• The first Services PMI of 2026: quantify how much the sub-1.000 January factors inflated the adjusted print versus non-seasonally adjusted data.

• Any supplemental release quantifying the 2023–2025 revisions. If contraction deepens post-revision, risk assets linked to goods demand are mispriced.

• Supplier Deliveries disclosure. If factor tables remain incomplete next month, treat headline PMIs as directional, not dispositive.

The immediate risk isn’t that the PMI is wrong; it’s that it’s unverifiable at the component level while seasonals are doing heavy lifting.

The Investor Takeaway

Seasonals are tilting the scoreboard before the first snap. Services January gets a mechanical lift (0.939–0.987 across components). Manufacturing’s spring New Orders get a mechanical drag (1.053–1.075), with a year-end tailwind (<1.000). Supplier Deliveries—central to interpretation—is missing from the factor tables, revisions to 2023–2025 are unquantified, and rounding caveats blur replication. That’s a cocktail for headline-driven whipsaw.

Actionable steps:
- Fade headline-driven Services strength in early 2026 unless hard data confirms.
- Look through spring Manufacturing softness; focus on orders-to-inventories and forward guidance rather than the headline alone.
- Prefer quality balance sheets in goods producers; avoid names relying on year-end optics.
- Keep modest duration optionality; seasonally suppressed Manufacturing prints could support tactical rallies in rates.
- Demand transparency: until Supplier Deliveries factors and revision histories are published, treat PMIs as a noisy signal—not gospel.