Orders Surge 5.3%, Shipments Slip: January 26, 2026 Release Shows Aerospace Is the Whole Story

In the official press release dated January 26, 2026, the headline reads like a boom: total new orders rose 5.3% in November to 323,791. But the core reality is far thinner. Ex-transportation new orders barely moved (+0.5% to 204,445), and the true private investment proxy—nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—ticked up 0.7% to 78,393. Meanwhile, total shipments fell 0.2%. The “rebound” lives in aircraft bookings, not in broad-based production.

Here’s what the data reveals:
- Transportation new orders jumped 14.7%, but transportation shipments fell 1.7%.
- Nondefense aircraft new orders surged 97.6% (to 35,407) even as nondefense aircraft shipments fell 11.7%.
- For manufacturers with unfilled orders, new orders rose 7.7% while shipments declined 0.2%—backlogs are doing the heavy lifting, not output.
- Excluding defense, new orders rose 6.6%; defense capital goods new orders fell 14.3%, and defense aircraft dipped 1.2%.
- Nondefense capital goods new orders rose 20.0%, but excluding aircraft they rose just 0.7%. Shipments echo this split: nondefense capital goods shipments fell 2.0% while ex-aircraft shipments rose 0.4%.
- Motor vehicles and parts: new orders -0.5%, shipments 0.0%—no momentum here.

Aircraft Stole the Show, Not the Economy

The November print is a masterclass in headline distortion. A 5.3% surge in total new orders makes for good press, but strip out transportation and you’re left with +0.5%. Focus further on core nondefense capex excluding aircraft and you get +0.7%, consistent with October (+0.3%) and September (+1.0%). Steady, yes. Surging, no.

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft new orders nearly doubled (+97.6% to 35,407). That’s great for OEM order books and investor sentiment—until you notice shipments fell 11.7%. The rest of transportation didn’t carry the flag: motor vehicles and parts posted -0.5% in new orders and flat shipments. So the “strength” is a narrow, volatile burst in commercial aircraft bookings, not a broad industrial upswing.

Orders Up, Production Down: Welcome to Backlog-Land

Total shipments fell 0.2% while new orders rose 5.3%. For sectors with unfilled orders, the gap is starker: new orders +7.7%, shipments -0.2%. That mix screams backlog build, not an acceleration in realized output. It’s consistent with an economy managing long lead times and delivery frictions—especially in aerospace—rather than unlocking new production capacity overnight.

This matters for near-term GDP and earnings translation. Orders pad future revenue visibility, but when shipments fall, you don’t get the cash flow today. Expect working capital to swell where backlogs build faster than deliveries, pressuring free cash flow for some manufacturers.

Defense Downshift, Private Jet-Lag

Excluding defense, new orders climbed 6.6%, but defense capital goods new orders dropped 14.3% after a -13.2% slide in October. Defense aircraft edged down 1.2%. Meanwhile, defense shipments rose 2.8%, suggesting deliveries against older contracts even as new bookings soften. This is a rotation within capital goods: commercial aircraft strength is masking a defense lull.

From a portfolio standpoint, that’s two different cycles. Defense primes may still deliver near term, but order intake looks softer. Conversely, commercial aerospace is a backlog story with multiyear tailwinds—but the conversion to shipments remains lumpy.

Tech and Autos: Warm, Not Hot

The tech-adjacent bits are volatile, not decisive. Communications equipment bounced +4.8% after a -7.4% prior-month drop. Computers and electronic products were up 0.2% in new orders while shipments rose 1.0%. Note the footnote: new orders exclude semiconductors, so don’t over-read this as a chip cycle signal.

Autos remain subdued: motor vehicles and parts new orders -0.5%, shipments flat. Year-to-date, motor vehicle new orders are +0.7% and shipments +0.6%—fine, but hardly a growth engine.

Revisions Quietly Lower the Bar

October 2025 total shipments were 309,634 in the December 23, 2025 release; they’re now 309,310. September fell from 307,836 to 307,795. Small downticks, but they subtly soften the base. In other words, November’s aircraft spike is springing from a slightly weaker starting point than previously presented.

Quick Read: What Moved vs. What Mattered

Year-to-date context reinforces the point: nondefense capex ex-aircraft new orders are +3.1% YTD; “all other durables” are -0.2% YTD in both orders and shipments; and for manufacturers with unfilled orders, new orders are +10.6% YTD vs shipments +4.8%—another way of saying the backlog story spans 2025, not just November.

The Core Capex Reality Check

Strip away the aircraft drama and you see a three-month run of measured improvement:
- Core capex (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) new orders: +0.7% (Nov), +0.3% (Oct), +1.0% (Sep).
- Core capex shipments: +0.4% (Nov), +0.8% (Oct), +1.2% (Sep).

This is the profile of a private investment cycle that is stabilizing, not surging. It supports a soft-landing narrative more than a reacceleration. Companies are spending, but not exuberantly.

What This Means for Markets

• Equities: Aerospace OEMs and key suppliers get the headlines, but the November gap between orders and shipments warns of cash conversion risk. Favor aftermarket and services exposure where revenue maps to flight hours, not just order books. Defense primes face softer order intake; look for contract mix and backlog quality to drive relative performance.

• Industrials: With ex-transport orders +0.5% and core capex +0.7%, broad industrial beta isn’t getting a macro lift. Focus on companies with self-help (pricing power, mix, cost control) and those levered to maintenance cycles rather than greenfield capex.

• Credit: Backlog growth with weaker shipments can strain working capital. Watch inventory turns and receivables at aerospace and capital goods names. Balance sheets with flexible liquidity and covenant headroom should outperform into 1H26.

• Rates: Softer shipments and the defense order downshift do not shout overheating. The mix supports a modestly constructive backdrop for duration, especially if subsequent hard data echo the output softening.

• Commodities: Autos flat and ex-aircraft capex subdued argue against a near-term industrial metals spike. Aerospace alloys benefit, but delivery timing tempers spot demand.

• Macro watchlist: Track whether aircraft orders translate into shipments by mid-2026 and whether core capex can sustain low-single-digit monthly gains. Any broadening into autos or “all other durables” would mark a real cycle turn; so far, breadth is missing.

The Investor Takeaway

This report looks powerful from 30,000 feet and underwhelming on the factory floor. The January 26, 2026 release puts a 5.3% gain in total new orders on the marquee, but the plot is simple: aircraft bookings did the heavy lifting while shipments fell. Core private capex is advancing at a measured +0.7%, defense orders are contracting, and backlogs continue to swell.

Actionable positioning:
- Tilt toward aerospace services/aftermarket and high-quality Tier 1 suppliers with proven delivery execution; avoid pure-play OEM exposure priced for flawless conversion.
- In industrials, prefer cash generators with stable maintenance revenue and price/mix leverage over names dependent on a broad capex renaissance that isn’t here yet.
- In defense, prioritize contractors with resilient programs and funding visibility; be cautious where new-booking pipelines look thin.
- For credit, favor issuers with strong liquidity and disciplined working capital management; widening backlogs without shipments can pinch cash.
- For macro hedging, modest duration exposure still makes sense while shipments lag and breadth remains narrow.

Headlines cheered the rebound. The data didn’t. Until shipments join the party and breadth improves beyond aircraft, treat the surge as optics, not a new cycle.